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On Wednesday (August 10th), international oil prices fell again and again. The small rebounds in the past few days have not been further extended. The global supply surplus and the previous trading day rose by nearly 3%, which triggered profit-taking, and EIA The short-term energy report raised US crude oil production expectations, and multiple factors have weighed on the upside momentum of oil producers that may limit production. Intraday needs to focus on EIA crude oil inventory data and OPEC monthly crude oil market report.

Despite the recent international crude oil prices make consecutive bearish market rebound in oil prices, to some extent eased the enthusiasm, the US crude oil from US $ 40 but the fundamentals of the market are limited improvement, continue to improve the future of obstacles, so oil prices continue to fall back to The possibility of $35-38/barrel still exists.

API data is unexpected, oil prices still need EIA guidelines

API data released at 4:30 am on Wednesday showed that as of the week of August 5, US API crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.089 million barrels, and is expected to decrease by 1.34 million barrels. Crude oil inventories in the US Cushing area unexpectedly increased by 1.253 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 1.304 million barrels.

In addition, the weekly API gasoline inventory unexpectedly decreased by 3.949 million barrels, the previous value decreased by 450,000 barrels, and the expected reduction of 1.125 million barrels. In the week, the API refined oil inventory unexpectedly decreased by 1.558 million barrels, the previous value increased by 539,000 barrels, which is expected to increase. A total of 375,000 barrels, affected by this, oil prices continued yesterday's decline.

Significant reductions in gasoline and refined oil inventories have alleviated market concerns about weak demand for crude oil . Previously, many analysts and traders expressed caution about excess stocks of crude oil and refined oil this summer, especially during the peak summer driving season, where US gasoline demand continued to weaken.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly short-term energy outlook report released on Wednesday morning that the agency expects domestic crude oil production this year to be 8.73 million barrels per day. In July this year, the agency’s forecast was this year. Crude oil production will be 8.61 million barrels per day. The background of this expectation in the US Energy Information Administration is that the number of active crude oil drilling platforms in the United States is showing an increasing trend.

EIA also lowered its 2017 US crude oil price forecast to US$51.58/barrel, which was previously expected to be US$52.15/barrel. Lower US crude oil price in 2016 is expected to reach US$41.16/barrel, which was previously expected to be US$43.57/barrel.

On Wednesday (August 10), 22:30 Beijing time will release data on EIA crude oil inventories during the week from the US to August 5.

OPEC internal problems still exist, frequent meetings can not solve the problem

On Wednesday (August 10th), OPEC will announce the monthly crude oil market report. The specific announcement time of the monthly report is to be determined, generally announced around 18-20 Beijing time.

According to informed sources, Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC's July crude oil output hit a record high , although it explained that the increase in July is to meet the needs of domestic power producers, but still caused a shock to the market, US crude oil September futures short-term refresh The two-day low reached $42.28 per barrel, a drop of about 1%, and the oil also refreshed the two-day low to $44.51 per barrel.

Venezuelan oil minister Eulogio DelPino said on Monday (August 8) that OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries may meet in the coming weeks, and the country hit by the crisis is seeking support for boosting the depressed oil market.

OPEC's rotating chairman, Qatar Energy Minister Mohammed Al Sada also said on Monday (August 8) that the organization will hold an informal meeting in Algiers in September this year to discuss oil prices and similar freeze production.

Some OPEC officials said that they might discuss freezing production at the September meeting , but Russia, a non-OPEC oil producer, said there is no reason to limit production at current price levels. Traders’ doubts about OPEC’s restart of the frozen production plan have deepened and oil prices have lost. The upside momentum of the previous day.

FMI's research arm, BMI Research, said in a report on Tuesday (August 9) that OPEC's plan to hold an informal meeting in September rekindled market speculation about coordinating production freezes; however, OPEC failed to achieve production this year. The freezing of the agreement has been questioned.

Oil prices are elusive, hedge funds love to follow suit

The performance of oil prices in 2016 is more like a suspense drama. After the initial decline at the beginning of the year, a strong rebound caused the oil price to quickly get rid of the low position and enter the technical bull market; however, the good times did not last long. After entering the summer, although the fundamental factors did not show obvious substantial changes, the decline in oil prices was Unblocked, compared with the high point in mid-June, oil prices once again entered the technical bear market.

And as oil prices fell back to bear markets and hit a three-month low, hedge funds also began to flock short WTI crude . According to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), last week's NYMEX WTI crude oil futures and options short positions increased by 38,489 to 218,623, the highest level since the listing of the product in 2006, and the short position in the past three weeks. Almost doubled. Long positions increased by only 1.6%, and net long positions fell by 28% to their lowest level since January.

In fact, in the past few months, the changes in the crude oil position of hedge funds representing “rational investment” have been following the signs of rising oil prices, and the oil prices have fallen and the shorts have been short . This kind of operation that boosts and helps the decline obviously increases the fluctuation of crude oil to some extent.

Investment bank camp

Compared with the market participants' uncertainty, the investment bank's perception of oil prices is also distinct.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam LonGS on and Citigroup analysts AakasHD oshi is short camp representatives. The former believes that, in essence, for the trend of oil prices, the demand for crude oil is more important than the demand for refined petroleum products. Assuming that there is an oversupply in the refined oil market, refining margins are shrinking, and the economy is weakening, demand for crude oil will decline in the coming months.

At the same time, he expects the average price of crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year to be 40 US dollars per barrel. This is an important psychological barrier, but oil prices may fall first in the next one to three months, and the bottom is about 35 US dollars per barrel .

Doshi said that the strong demand for gasoline has been met by the refinery supply, and the refining margin has suffered downward pressure. Moreover, affected by the increase in crude oil and petroleum product inventories, coupled with the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices have been blocked.

Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities and derivatives research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and legendary trader Andy Hall clearly disagreed. Blanch believes that oil prices will bottom out in the second half of this year and will rise to $70 next year . Although Hall did not give a specific target price, he stressed that the current short positions are too extreme. As the fundamentals gradually improve, the trend of falling oil prices will be “violently reversed” at some point.

The latest report from Neutral Goldman Sachs said that the supply and demand relationship in the crude oil market is limited, so the oil price will remain between 45-50 US dollars per barrel before mid-2017 . Goldman Sachs believes that the improvement of crude oil fundamentals is still very fragile, and some factors that give oil price guidance are long and short: forest fires favor oil prices but Iran's production capacity returns to bearish oil prices; demand for crude oil in India and China slows in the second half of this year, but Nigeria and Venezuela Production cuts will provide support.

Goldman Sachs said that in the short term, the volatility of the dollar will become a key factor in leading oil prices, rather than fundamental changes. Goldman Sachs also expects oil prices to fall below $35/barrel only if China suddenly abandons its oil policy or Libya/Nigeria's capacity increases.

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